Two key events of late in federal politics make clear to me that the trends evident in the last federal election are solidified and have the potential to reshape the Canadian political landscape for a long time to come. The first has to do with the latest add campaign launched by the Conservatives and the second has to do with the election of Thomas Mulcair as leader of the official opposition.
There was a time when the Conservatives and PM Harper were the victims of repeated attack adds. There was the idea that Harper was going to “divide and conquer” the nation by pitting region against region, group against group. This is an accusation that lasts to this day. It went along with the boogeyman narrative that allowed the Liberals to win a minority Government under Paul Martin, and keep the Conservatives to a minority for years. Finally Canadians realized that Harper was not intent on criminalizing homosexuality and abortion or teaching creationism in school and they gave him a majority. The opposition's attempts at painting the Conservatives in the same light as the extreme fringe (although increasingly influential) segment of the Republican party in the US stopped working. They stopped working because Canadians, given several years of Harper governments, realized he was generally center-right. He is generally fiscally conservative and socially moderate to –dare I say it?– liberal; as most Canadians are. The attacks also stopped working because Canadians grew tired of them. They saw Harper presenting his ideas through legislation and saw the opposition doing nothing but criticize on false pretenses. Which lead Canadians to consider the narrative being put forth –is he actually bad?–, the policies being offered by the Conservatives, and the largely absent alternative being offered by the opposition. The result of these considerations is clear in the 2011 election results.
The Conservatives have subjected the Liberal leaders to the same sort of negative definition. It was easy to do as both Dion and Ignattief were intensely weak and flawed candidates. They are now doing the same with Bob Rae whose record as premier of Ontario was, by nearly all accounts, dismal. In fact, it was so dismal that most Liberals thought him a terrible premier. Then he switched from the NDP to the Liberals. Their old enemy, whose policies and government they ardently criticized, they are now forced to defend and embrace as leader. Its a odd situation that justifies being pointed out. It is completely legitimate that the Conservatives remind Ontartians of their past premier's record. The Liberals would do the same if he were still with the NDP. Accompanied by these ads, focusing on the abysmal economic record of Rae, are ads focusing on Stephen Harper's economic record as PM. It highlights the fact that we survived the global meltdown nearly unscathed and that our economy appears to be turning the corner. Tough, sound fiscal management in unsure times: that's the narrative that the Conservatives are focusing on in regards to their record. It's one that appeals to conservatives and Canadians and it's one that is hard to refute, particularly for Liberals who are largely cut from the same economic cloth as Conservatives. Of course the question remains as to weather Bob Rae will even stay on as leader of the Liberals. It's also a question that seems increasingly less relevant.
Of all the candidates for leader of the NDP, Mulcair was the only one who looked and acted like a PM. He was also the only one who was likely to keep the lions share of the gains the NDP enjoyed in the last election (for which he is owed much credit). Ultimately, he was the only potential leader that was capable of maintaining the momentum that he and Jack motivated. Now he is leader of the opposition. In an interview after his first House of Commons debate as leader, Mulcair said something that Jack used to say, he said that the NDP would be proposing not just opposing. I have to say I'm particularly fond of this; it's the perfect soundbite and it has substance because of what is behind it. I think it's also something that is overwhelmingly appealing to Canadians. Thomas Mulcair presents the Conservatives with a formidable political rival. I'd venture to say the most formidable we have faced.
Mulcair, in a lot of ways, is not your typical New Democrat but that is precisely why he is so good for them. He doesn't seem like someone who is content with influencing Government from the outside. He wants to be in control of the policy. He is also moderate and this comes across in the way he presents himself. His ideas surrounding sustainable economic development and his background as a cabinet minister give him a an air of legitimacy and experience that surpasses that of, I think, any recent NDP leader. He is also a political bulldog; not afraid to fight and known for a temper; he won't sit back and allow the Conservatives to define him. He has all of the characteristics that the NDP typically lack and everything required for them to steal the left-center out from underneath the Liberals (or what's left of them).
Which brings me back to his line about proposing and opposing. He will be doing plenty of both; something that all of the Liberal leaders of late neglected to do. It also makes a lot of sense for a Socialist, or Social Democrat (as the party is likely to re-frame itself in the next while) to say when facing a Conservative opponent. This is because the NDP, by its nature, has much more to propose in opposition to the Conservative government than the Liberals do. As stated before, conservative and liberal approaches to the economy are evolved from the same economic fundamentals. There is an immense amount of room for agreement and policy similarities between the two. Which is partly why the Liberals failed to offer up a real alternative to the Conservatives in the last election. It is why the Liberals are in a weaker position to criticize the recent budget which looked remarkably similar to a Paul Martin budget. The NDP are going to have a much easier time framing themselves in opposition to Conservative policy and in offering up real, appealing (albeit likely flawed and impracticable) alternatives.
This is why I think Conservative strategists are going to have to change course. Mulcair is going to take them to task on their record as they have never been before. The Conservative government has a strong record that will need to be explained and defended to the Canadian voting public. An attempt at increased transparency and openness would go a long way in silencing the blows that are bound to come loud and fierce. In regards to governing, we mostly need to stay the course and I think Canadians will reward Stephen Harper for his prudence. The NDP as main opposition, present the Conservatives with the opportunity of stark contrasts between the economically progressive policies of a Conservative government with the economically regressive policies of a Socialist party. Mulcair won't be as easily definable as Dion, Ignatieff, or Rae have been. It is actually quite likely that Conservative strategy will involve continuing to focus attacks on the Liberals in order to continue to win over centrist voters and to create the false impression that the Liberals are the Conservative's chief rivals.
For now the Conservatives need only to continue governing efficiently and effectively. In the meantime they will have a far more fierce, effective, and articulate opposition to hold them to account. If nothing else the NDP under Mulcair will serve as a constant reminder to Stephen Harper and the Conservatives why they must govern as best they can for our country; and nothing bad should come from that. Mulcair presents the Conservatives with the opportunity for better government in the face of strong opposition.
