On the Byelections in Brandon-Souris, Provencher, Toronto Centre, and Bourassa

Byelections are often seen as a snoozy affair.  This time around was a bit different.  In Toronto Centre both the Liberals and NDP ran star candidates.  The NDP had strong hopes of winning the riding while the Liberals needed to hold onto a riding that usually supports them, almost without fault.  In Brandon-Souris, Manitoba, recent polling had the Liberals leading by as much as 29% in a riding that had elected Conservatives in all but one election in the past 60 years, with 64% in the last election.  The media seemed intensely interested in the story of a resurgent Liberal party and a troubled Conservative government and so that was the narrative we had been fed in the days leading up to the byelections.  It also seems to be the narrative that continued on the nightly news despite results that do not entirely tell that tale.
The results ended up being, for the most part, more of the same.  The Conservatives were re-elected in two safe Manitoba ridings and the Liberals were re-elected in two safe Liberal ridings.  In Brandon-Souris the Conservative candidate won narrowly over the Liberal candidate.  This, in a riding where the Liberals barely registered with 5% and a fourth place finish in 2011.  This riding should be a cake-walk for the Conservatives.  It should not be on the Liberals' radar.   In Toronto Centre and Bourassa the Liberals won by a comfortable margin.  The NDP came in a respectable second. They did not take the Toronto riding as they had hoped, despite their star candidate and the widely appreciated performance of Thomas Mulcair in the House of Commons.
The byelections alone do not say much more than this.  Considering what else is going on right now, however, the byelections indicate a lot more.  For the NDP it says they really have an uphill battle to remain the second-place party.  With the attention that the media is giving Justin Trudeau and his Liberal party it will be very hard for Mulcair to get any.  The media is now on this resurgent Liberal narrative, combined with the 'scandal-plagued' Conservative narrative it leaves very little room for the NDP.  The results tonight also do little to dispel this narrative.  In both the Manitoba ridings the NDP went from solid second-place party to way back in third.  A bit of a silver lining is that they do seem to have a solid base of support in Montreal and Toronto.
For the Liberals it appears to be nothing but good news.  The media can be relied upon to feed the Liberal narrative to the public.  Liberals vastly increased their support and came close to winning in ridings where they barely registered before.
What  is important to remember is that this is in the midst of the most intensely negative news cycle that the Conservative government has faced.  It has been very difficult for the government to turn the page and important accomplishments have gone unnoticed.  CETA, for instance, is one of the most significant policy developments of the past couple of decades.  CETA deserves, and will eventually get, more attention.  When that happens it will be a good thing for the Conservatives.  That is not to say that coverage of the scandal is unwarranted or unfair; the government brought it on themselves.
Byelections are typically hard on the governing party.  It was a chance for constituents to express distaste for elements of the Conservative record without actually kicking out the government.  It is safe to presume that the results would be vastly different if the voters knew that, in fact, their decision could change the government.  The level of support that the Conservative candidates in all four ridings received is worrisome but only if it resembled a more permanent change in voting preferences and not a temporary snub to a governing party.   If all this hullabaloo has already reached its peak then Conservatives can easily move on, and up, from this low point.
Justin Trudeau remains an underwhelming parliamentarian and an inexperienced politician.  The prospect of such a rookie, whose only two notable attributes are his name and his looks, as Prime Minister is one that is truly suspect.  The Liberal party brand goes no further than the leader and is otherwise no less in shambles than after the election in 2011.  The longer that popular distaste for the Harper Conservatives lasts, however, the more that the Trudeau Liberals become the default choice for an ever-increasing pool of Canadians.  Thomas Mulcair is a calculated, capable, and formidable politician but he also faces a struggle for media attention and the uncertainty surrounding his, and his party's economic positions.  The Conservatives remain the clear choice for voters concerned about economic stability.  Stephen Harper and the Conservatives have a great policy record to stand on.  One that can surely win the next election if only he, and the party, can get ahead of this 'scandal'.  They need to figure out how to do so, and fast.