In 2011 we saw that Canadians, overwhelmingly, chose to keep governing parties in power. In Yukon, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland conservative parties (ascribing to various names) were resoundingly re-elected. Federally the same was true. In Manitoba it was a very close race, by votes cast, but due to oddities in the first-past the post system the NDP was re-elected with a strong majority. In Ontario voters settled on a re-elected Liberal minority government. That was the 2011 election cycle. It was exciting for me and reassuring. All of the provinces that elected conservative parties seem to be settling on a consensus that free-market policies are undoubtedly the way forward for Canadians. Nationally, one hopes, we are coming towards this consensus as well. Manitoba and Ontario both look ripe for political change in their next round of elections, which is likely to benefit conservative parties and the well-being of the provinces themselves. What of the provinces that are set to vote in the next two years? Here I think things get quite exciting too.
In Quebec the CAQ presents an exciting new alternative to the old sovereignist-federalist battle lines and, perhaps more importantly, is soundly based in free-market, entrepreneurial policy that is sure to benefit the province and our country. We already saw a huge shakeup in Quebec politics with the federal election and witnessed the destruction of the Bloc Québécios. We can only hope the CAQ can deliver a death-blow to soverignty in Quebec by giving the Parti Québécios a terrible showing. The Liberals there have done a respectable job of managing the economy but are elected largely because of the bi-polar nature of Quebec politics (the result of the sovereignty debate). This results in voters feeling forced into voting one of two ways and settling on a party that is increasingly shrouded in controversy and scandal. The Liberals have lost their right to govern but free-market oriented voters as well as federalists, until recently, only had one feasible option. Political observers will be watching this one intently.
In Alberta, it seems, the groundwork is laid for another historic shakeup. Alberta has been governed by four political parties, in succession, since its beginning. First by the Liberals, then by the United Farmers, followed by the Social Credit for 36 years and the Progressive Conservatives (PC) for 41 years. Historically, each party governs with very little opposition until the next 'dynasty' emerges and overtakes the old one. Many observers, including myself, feel Alberta has reached this critical juncture. The PC's have shifted to the left of the political spectrum as Alberta, and Canada, shifts to the right. It has left them more open to attack on the right which is exactly where the Wildrose Party exists. Alberta came to a consensus centered around modern conservatism over seventy years ago and when the dynastic party moves away from it, naturally, another dynasty will come in to fill the void. It seems quite likely that the Wildrose Party will win the Alberta provincial election this year.
In British Columbia we have, perhaps, the most unpredictable set of circumstances. This is primarily because in Alberta and Quebec a great amount of realignment has already occurred while in BC, the realignment I'm both advocating for and predicting hasn't entirely taken shape yet. BC, along with Quebec, is a very bi-polar province politically. The province is largely separated into two camps: free-market advocates and their allies and proponents of command economy models (represented by the unions and the NDP). The province has been characterized by this two-party system since the early 40s when the NDPs emergent popularity made necessary a 'merging' of the political center-right. When the Social Credit party collapsed at the start of the 90s, and without an appropriate party to pick up the center-right banner, the NDP entered into the decade of destruction, during which it was able to turn BC into a have-not province. In a decade of economic prosperity across the western world, BC was brought into a decade of economic stagnation. Roughly half of this province never has and never will vote for the NDP. More than that, presumably, understand the economic record of NDP governments in this province; anytime they've come into power we've gone into a period of stagnation or decline. At the same time the BC Liberals are losing the approval of a great number of those voters who won't vote NDP. The reasons for this are multiple and I plan on blogging on it more in the future.
Enter the BC Conservatives. They are looking increasingly capable of governing this province. Their base is still small; the fear that many British Columbians have of another NDP government is so strong that many feel bound to the BC Liberals. I recently escaped from my self-inflicted captivity in the BC Liberals to join the BC Conservatives. The situation of so many supporters feeling hostage to the increasingly misguided and liberal BC Liberals is not healthy for democracy. My hope is that the BC Conservatives are able to position themselves as filling the increasing void on the center-right left by the drifting and tired BC Liberals.
Canada's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th largest provinces are set to offer up some major political shake ups. It also seems quite likely that two powerful Liberal parties are likely to face the same fate as their federal counterparts. The cause of which, in all three cases, seems to be the overwhelming sense of entitlement, lack of ethics, and disregard for citizen input on the part of Liberal parties across the country. I feel trends point to a crisis within Liberal ideology and the Liberal vision for Canada. The trends also point to a shifting of the political center in the country that clearly benefits conservative parties and governments.
No comments:
Post a Comment